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We never win when we go 1-0 down...
Posted: 25 Nov 2023, 09:09
by fairweatherfan
Prompted by getting grumpy at going 1-0 on Tuesday night ('we never come back we go behind' I grumbled), I decided to do an analysis of results when we have gone behind since Paul Smith took over (my girlfriend somewhat pathetically telling me 'your autism is so sweet' coming downstairs to find me deep in spreadsheets), and so where better to share the results:
2019/2020* 2020/2021* 2021/2022 2022/2023 (PS) 2022/2023 (CN) 2022/2023 (all) 2023/2024 Overall Percentages
Won 4 0 3 1 2 3 0 10 21
Lost 5 3 6 5 4 9 6 29 62
Drew 2 1 3 0 1 1 1 8 17
Bottom line: since the start of the 2019 season, we fail to win in 4/5 matches where we go behind, and lose in 3/5. If we look only at the period since the start of the 2022 season, we lose 3/4, and in fact only win 1 in 10. In addition, since many of the turnarounds were from the Trophy run, the numbers get even more stark.
Conclusion: I was right. We do indeed never* come back.
*if never means usually,
Re: We never win when we go 1-0 down...
Posted: 25 Nov 2023, 09:11
by fairweatherfan
Should also add that I have done this only because I am a nerd. There is no agenda here and I'm not building a case for anyone to be sacked!
Re: We never win when we go 1-0 down...
Posted: 25 Nov 2023, 11:28
by drummyb
I was grumpy at how bad we played. I came to the conclusion we always lose when we play crap.
Disclaimer:
*no spreadsheets available. Other opinions are available.
Re: We never win when we go 1-0 down...
Posted: 25 Nov 2023, 12:32
by fairweatherfan
In fairness, we went 1-0 that early I hadn't had chance to get annoyed with the performance by then.
Re: We never win when we go 1-0 down...
Posted: 29 Nov 2023, 15:53
by Noggin
fairweatherfan wrote: ↑25 Nov 2023, 09:09
Prompted by getting grumpy at going 1-0 on Tuesday night ('we never come back we go behind' I grumbled), I decided to do an analysis of results when we have gone behind since Paul Smith took over (my girlfriend somewhat pathetically telling me 'your autism is so sweet' coming downstairs to find me deep in spreadsheets), and so where better to share the results:
2019/2020* 2020/2021* 2021/2022 2022/2023 (PS) 2022/2023 (CN) 2022/2023 (all) 2023/2024 Overall Percentages
Won 4 0 3 1 2 3 0 10 21
Lost 5 3 6 5 4 9 6 29 62
Drew 2 1 3 0 1 1 1 8 17
Bottom line: since the start of the 2019 season, we fail to win in 4/5 matches where we go behind, and lose in 3/5. If we look only at the period since the start of the 2022 season, we lose 3/4, and in fact only win 1 in 10. In addition, since many of the turnarounds were from the Trophy run, the numbers get even more stark.
Conclusion: I was right. We do indeed never* come back.
*if never means usually,
As the 2019-20 season "never happened" for statistical purposes can we please have the comparative data for (a) all matches, (b) excluding 2019-20 (c) 2019-20 only?
For extra marks, please split into league, cup and friendly matches Homework by the end of the week please
Re: We never win when we go 1-0 down...
Posted: 29 Nov 2023, 18:29
by cripcrap
playoff final
Re: We never win when we go 1-0 down...
Posted: 30 Nov 2023, 08:53
by piearce9
cripcrap wrote: ↑29 Nov 2023, 18:29
playoff final
Technically that was a draw
Re: We never win when we go 1-0 down...
Posted: 30 Nov 2023, 10:40
by fairweatherfan
piearce9 wrote: ↑30 Nov 2023, 08:53
cripcrap wrote: ↑29 Nov 2023, 18:29
playoff final
Technically that was a draw
For the purposes here, I put it down as a win, treating the match length as 120 minutes.
It wasn't wasted on me that on the day I did this nonsense we actually came back to draw, although that was really rather the intention...
Re: We never win when we go 1-0 down...
Posted: 30 Nov 2023, 11:20
by Noggin
fairweatherfan wrote: ↑30 Nov 2023, 10:40
piearce9 wrote: ↑30 Nov 2023, 08:53
cripcrap wrote: ↑29 Nov 2023, 18:29
playoff final
Technically that was a draw
For the purposes here, I put it down as a win, treating the match length as 120 minutes.
It wasn't wasted on me that on the day I did this nonsense we actually came back to draw, although that was really rather the intention...
I think a that lot of people were wasted in a different sense that day; before during or after